Emken’s surge
This week in the California Senate race, Elizabeth Emken (R) is experiencing a powerful surge. Check out the numbers. Anybody know what’s going on?
Hawaii’s first district
Charles Djou (R) and Colleen Hanabusa (D, incumbent) are locked in a pretty epic battle right now. Typically, incumbents enjoy a fairly strong advantage when it comes to digital footprint because they have been around longer, and have thus had a longer time to develop a strong digital following. In this case, however, the challenger has a stronger footprint. This is likely because Djou has a relatively high profile in the state of Hawaii, having served as the representative of Hawaii’s first district from May 2010 until January 2011 following a special election. But there could be other factors at play, too. Is there more enthusiasm for a Republican candidate than a Democratic one in Hawaii right now?
POINTS THIS WEEK:
POINTS ALL-TIME:
Gingrich & social media: what’s going on?
Less than one week after shifting his cash-strapped campaign’s focus from traditional operations to low-cost social media, Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich is adding more Twitter followers than his three Republican rivals combined.
According to our stats this week, Gingrich has added nearly 16,000 Twitter followers in the past two days, compared to approximately 5,000 new followers for Mitt Romney, 1,500 for Ron Paul, and 1,400 for Rick Santorum.
Gingrich laid off one-third of his campaign staff last week and his campaign manager was asked to resign. With the least cash on hand of the four GOP candidates at the end of February, according to Federal Election Commission filings, the campaign is now prioritizing inexpensive digital outreach.
While the Gingrich Twitter surge may be the result of a strategic pivot, it is sure to raise eyebrows among politicos already skeptical of Gingrich’s social media following.
In August 2011, a former Gingrich staffer said that the campaign employed a variety of agencies whose sole purpose was to procure Twitter followers for clients willing to pay for them, according to Gawker. At the time, PeekYou, a New York search company, estimated that just 8% of Gingrich’s followers were actual identifiable human beings, as opposed to spam accounts, business accounts, or private accounts.
In the past, the Gingrich campaign has denied employing outside groups to inflate its followers, calling the accusations unsubstantiated lies.
Top 5 Races (House)
And now onto the Top 5 House Races!
The contenders are locked in a close race, each with almost identical digital footprints. This should be an interesting one to watch over the next few months.
Salvatore Pace (D) will give the incumbent, Scott Tipton (R), a run for his money here. Only 900 points separate them and Pace is adding more points every week than Tipton.
Mary Rosen (D) is developing a strong lead against Andrew Harris (R), the incumbent.
Lots of candidates, lots of movement. This should be a fun one.
Interesting primary battle shaping up between Michael Williams (R) and Roger Williams (R). Both have large digital followings, but Roger is adding more supporters at a faster pace than Michael.
Top 5 Races (Senate)
We’ve brought you the interesting Republicans you should be watching out for, and the interesting Democrats. Now it’s time to highlight the Senate races you should be paying attention to based on social media activity. (We’ll do House races next week.)
Heitkamp and Berg are locked in a fairly close race — her digital footprint is still slightly larger than his.
2. Texas Senate
Even though Ted Cruz has arguably been generating the most press nationwide (and even though he certainly has the strongest overall digital footprint in the race), his opponent, Tom Leppert, is actually doing better on a weekly basis. This week, for example, he has added 513 new supporters compared to Cruz’s 344.
George Allen has the strongest footprint, but Kaine is having a better week. He has added 64 to Allen’s 35. Note that Radtke is also doing fairly well.
Warren was actually outperforming Brown for several weeks, but this week he has reclaimed the lead. He has added roughly twice as many supporters this week as Warren. A lot attention is focused on this race, though.
You might not have been paying attention to this race, but there’s actually quite a bit of social media activity focused on it. The Republican challenger is doing better this week than the incumbent Democrat, but last week she was actually in first place. This one could remain interesting for the next few months.
(Bonus) 6. Florida Senate
Connie Mack has been getting a lot of press attention, but for the second week in a row Michael McCalister is actually attracting more digital support. This week he has added 376 new supporters to date, compared with Mack’s 128.
Top 5 Republicans to Watch
Earlier this week we gave you the Top 5 Democrats who are performing very well in this election cycle, so far, in terms of digital media. Now we give you the Top 5 Republicans.
Williams, the former Secretary of State in Texas, is developing an incredible social media following compared to others who are running in House races in Texas. He has a digital following of around 20,000 people. And this week alone, he added an additional 500. He has by far the strongest following among the field of candidates running in this district.
Mark Meadows, a businessperson who is active in local politics, is challenging Shuler (D). This week, he has added 71 points to his digital following, compared with 1 for Shuler. The last few weeks have been much the same. Overall, his digital following is at just over 3,000, compared to Shuler’s, which is hovering closer to 500.
Bruning is running for Senate in Nebraska against incumbent Ben Nelson (D). He is currently the attorney general of Nebraska. He has a strong digital following, with a total of almost 23,000 supporters compared to Ben Nelson’s roughly 4,000. And he is adding new supporters at a faster pace.
Durant is challenging incumbent Stabenow (D) for the Senate seat in Michigan. He still lags behind Stabenow in terms of overal digital footprint, but he is adding supporters at a much faster pace. This week, for example, he has added over 600 supporters compared to Stabenow’s 246.
Mandel, the current Treasurer of Ohio, is challenging incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) for the Senate seat in Ohio. With over 30,000 total supporters, Brown still has a stronger digital footprint (compared to Mandel’s 11,000). But Mandel is add way more supporters every week. This week, he has added over 200 supporters compared to Brown’s 20.
Washington Post mentions Whistlestop
We’re excited that the Washington Post had an article about Whistlestop over the weekend: http://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/apps-become-new-political-yard-signs/2012/03/06/gIQAJ6XZ1R_story.html
The article mentions Whistlestop as one of the three hot political apps to look out for in this election cycle. We agree!
Top 5 Democrats to Watch
One of the great things about Whistlestop is that it is drawing attention to candidates that you might not otherwise learn about until much later in the election cycle. Here are 5 Democrats — in no specific order — that we think you should look out for this year based on the activity we’ve seen over Whistlestop so far. (We’ll be doing Republicans later in the week.)
1. Wenona Banally Baldenegro (D, AZ-01)
Baldenegra is a Harvard-educated lawyer. She has been attracting a strong digital following, especially on Facebook. (Last week, she added over 400 likes.)
A former astronaut, Hernandez is running in the newly created 10th district. His digital following is immense: He has around 230,000 combined Facebook and Twitter followers.
Schneider is a businessperson with an MBA from Northwestern. Week after week, Schneider adds far more numbers to his digital footprint than the incumbent, Dold (R). Just over the last 48 hours he has added almost 70 new supporters, compared to just 1 for Dold.
Castro, a young Harvard Law graduate who currently serves in the Texas legislature, has thousands more followers than the incumbent, Gonzalez (D). And he is adding followers at a much more rapid pace.
Clark, a lawyer-activist, has almost 16,000 digital supporters. The incumbent, Cravaack (R), has only around 5,500. On top of that, Clark is adding supporters at a much faster rate.
Super Tuesday: Whistlestop’s Predictions
For several months now, we have been monitoring the presidential race based on the candidates’ digital footprints. In other words, on a week by week basis Whistlestop tracks how the presidential candidates are performing in terms of how many Twitter followers they are adding, how many additional Facebook likes they generate, and so on.
At this point, Whistlestop’s data are nationwide — so our data do not show, specifically, how the presidential candidates are performing in particular states.
But what our data do show is the level of online enthusiasm for the various candidates at a particular point in time. And this has, to a certain extent, been a good proxy for what is happening in the primaries around the same point in time.
For example, around the time of the Iowa caucus, Santorum had surged to first place among Republican presidential candidates, based on his Whistlestop Score. Similarly, when Newt’s poll numbers were looking better, his numbers on Whistlestop were also strong.
So in light of that, what are Whistlestop’s predictions for tonight?
Take a look at the below screenshot, that shows the presidential leaderboard (with the candidates’ respective Whistlestop Scores) as of this moment.
First of all, Obama is way out in front…but that’s a different story for another day.
Among the Republicans, Mitt Romney is having a very strong week — with 9,445 points so far for the week. In fact, there haven’t been very many weeks over the past few months during which his score has been that much higher, in percentage terms, than the scores of his opponents.
Santorum has about 2/3 as many points this week as Romney.
Gingrich, meanwhile, is having a terrible week. He has only 932 points.
(We are going to ignore Ron Paul, whose much-vaunted digital support is also a story for another day.)
So here’s what we can say: Going into Super Tuesday, enthusiasm for Mitt Romney seems to be quite strong. Enthusiasm for Santorum has chilled somewhat compared to recent weeks. And for Gingrich, the bottom has just dropped out.
We can’t predict specific outcomes for specific primaries today, but we’ll venture a guess that overall, Romney will have a pretty good day, Gingrich will have a pretty bad day, and Santorum will be somewhere in between.
Have fun watching the returns!
Whistlestop public beta launches today!
Our entire team is extremely excited about our launch today. Thanks to Leena Rao for kicking things off with a great launch announcement in TechCrunch: http://techcrunch.com/2012/02/29/whistlestop-tracks-political-candidates-based-on-social-media-data/
